Colombian Primera A fixtures between defensive-minded sides rarely exceed 3 goals. Deportivo Cali had gone Under 3.5 in 9 of their last 11 home matches while Santa Fe are disciplined away from home. Our model put Under 3.5 probability at 78% and the 1-1 final score confirmed exactly what the data suggested.
Yesterday's Results
Ludogorets were on a 14-game unbeaten run heading into this fixture. Spartak Varna had lost 7 of their last 9 home games and carried one of the worst defensive records in the Bulgarian top flight. The quality gap was enormous and the 1-5 result was a straightforward confirmation of what the statistics pointed to clearly.
Cup football in Russia consistently produces goals and Lokomotiv had scored in 11 consecutive away games. The attacking demands of knockout football ensured both sides came forward and the 2-2 result was a perfect over 1.5 outcome.
The ISL averages 2.4 goals per game league-wide and SC Delhi had seen Under 3.5 land in 8 of their last 10 home fixtures. Jamshedpur sit 3rd in the league for fewest goals conceded away from home. The 1-1 result confirmed our under 3.5 reading was well placed.
SK Brann are a vastly stronger side than Bryne and cup games between top-flight and lower-division sides tend to produce open encounters. Brann had scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 9 games. The over 1.5 landed through a 1-1 draw showing that you only need two combined goals for the market to win.
Arsenal had scored in 14 consecutive Premier League home games and Chelsea had netted in 11 straight away fixtures. BTTS landed in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these sides. The 2-1 result was a clean BTTS outcome confirming why this market was the right call for this top-six clash.
Inter are the best team in Italy and had won 9 of their last 11 home Serie A games. Empoli had picked up just 5 points on the road all season. The 2-0 result was a very comfortable home win that fell exactly within the range the data suggested going into this fixture.
PSG were unbeaten at the Parc des Princes all season and had won 10 of their last 11 away Ligue 1 games on the road. Lorient were bottom of the table and the quality gap made this one of the more straightforward home win selections on yesterday's card. The 4-0 result was clinical and decisive.
BTTS had landed in all 12 of the last Brasileirao meetings between these clubs. The Maracana atmosphere drives Flamengo into attack from the first minute and Palmeiras always arrive at this fixture with a clear scoring plan. The 2-1 result landed BTTS comfortably and confirmed why this market was the standout selection in this fixture.
Barcelona had averaged 2.9 goals per home La Liga game heading into this fixture and our model rated over 2.5 at 74% probability. However, Getafe set up with an extremely low defensive block and limited Barcelona to a single goal in a 1-0 win. The statistics supported the tip but Getafe's exceptional defensive discipline on the day produced one of those results that no model can fully predict. Football always has the final word.
Leeds had won 9 of their last 11 Championship home games and Hull had won just twice away from home all season. Elland Road is one of the most intimidating grounds in the division and the home win was firmly backed by the data. Leeds won 2-1 in another example of the form guide delivering exactly as expected.
Celtic had won 12 consecutive Scottish Premiership home games. St Mirren had lost 6 of their last 8 away trips against top-half clubs and their goals-against record on the road was one of the worst in the division. The 3-0 result was emphatic and confirmed why Celtic at home against lower-half opposition is one of the most reliable home win selections in British football.
Over 2.5 had landed in 9 of the last 11 Bundesliga meetings between Dortmund and Leverkusen and our model gave it a 79% probability. Both managers approached this fixture more cautiously than usual given their respective league position pressures and the 1-1 draw kept the scoresheet tighter than historical data would have suggested. A well-backed selection that did not land on this occasion. These results happen and we report them transparently.
El Trafico between LA Galaxy and LAFC has produced both teams scoring in every single meeting since 2021. The rivalry averages 3.4 goals per game and BTTS is essentially the default market for this fixture based on an extraordinary historical record. The 2-1 result was another routine BTTS confirmation for this remarkable MLS rivalry.
Al-Hilal had won every single home Saudi Pro League game this season with an average of 3.8 goals per home fixture. Al-Batin were bottom of the table with the worst defensive record in the division. The 4-0 result was emphatic and confirmed what every data point had suggested going into this fixture. This was one of the clearest home win selections on the entire card.
Showing all results from yesterday.
James Adeyemi
James has 11 years of experience in football statistics and sports betting analysis. GoalVertex publishes yesterday's results transparently — every win and every loss — so our readers can evaluate our track record honestly and make informed decisions about following our tips.